By ROGER TAYLOR - Business Columnist
Is there a surer sign of spring in Nova Scotia than when people start to discuss prospects for the upcoming tourist season?
The Conference Board of Canada started it off recently by stating in its spring report that it expects improvement in the Canadian tourism sector this year. And, I'm sure there are plenty of tourism boosters in Nova Scotia willing to predict a dramatic turnaround in this province too.
Some would say, however, that last year wasn't as bad as some have portrayed it. They point to government statistics to suggest tourist traffic was down just about five per cent overall.
But there is plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest it was much worse than the official statistics suggest. Some angry operators, especially on the South Shore, believe the numbers the government use are based on faulty data.
Based on what happened last year, I've had people complain to me about the government not doing enough and not being better prepared. They were doubly angry because they believe government didn't properly acknowledge there was a problem and take steps to offer assistance.
One might have thought last year's poor tourism performance would be detrimental to former tourism minister Rodney MacDonald's Tory leadership bid. It was therefore somewhat surprising that the party elected MacDonald as its leader and new provincial premier.
Be that as it may, the last tourist season was so dismal for many operators that they now believe it has nowhere to go but up.
Terry Grandy, owner of the Manor Inn in Yarmouth and president of the Innkeepers Guild of Nova Scotia, wryly suggests things are already a little better than last year.
"Last year at this time we got the news, on April 6, the (passenger ferry) Scotia Prince wasn't going to operate. We had people calling to cancel their reservations. At least this year, even though it hasn't been very busy, we have people calling to make reservations, not to cancel them," he says.
The loss of the Scotia Prince, which cruised between Portland, Maine, and Yarmouth, was a big blow to the local economy. And although the ferry will not be running this year either, Bay Ferries is planning to split the operation of its high-speed ferry, the Cat, between two routes &emdash; Yarmouth to Bar Harbor, Maine, and Yarmouth to Portland. That will mean there will be one less crossing per week from Yarmouth to Maine, compared to the Cat's schedule last year, but Grandy is hopeful the Portland connection will bring a different type of passenger.
He says the tourists coming from Bar Harbor seem to be the type to tack on, at the last minute, a couple of days in Canada to their Maine vacation. The tourists coming from Portland, Grandy says, seem to be making Nova Scotia more of a travel destination.
But there are still big concerns about the rise in the price of gasoline on both sides of the border. And the high-value Canadian dollar has made Canada less of a value vacation for American visitors.
Grandy says he doesn't believe the province has been doing a good enough job of attracting new visitors to the province and he says declining visitor numbers over the past number of years is evidence of that.
Don Rochford, owner of Nova's B&B in Digby, says last year was a terrible one and although he is still hopeful things will turn around in 2006, he has decided to delay opening his bed and breakfast by a full month. But even at that, he says, he hasn't taken any reservations for June.
One of the biggest complaints has been the condition of many of the roads in the province and the scenic Cabot Trail has been singled out for criticism. On Tuesday the Transportation Department called for tenders for repaving of a 6.2-kilometre section of the route just south of Margaree Harbour.
One wag described the announcement as a sure sign there will be a provincial election soon. The paving might benefit the tourist industry in that part of the province in the long run but if the work is planned for the height of the season, it may be just as big a hindrance as a pothole-filled road.
Meanwhile, Frank Machnik, owner of Sea 'Scape Cottages in Bayfield, Antigonish County, overlooking Pomquet Provincial Park, says things are still weak this year. American tourist traffic, especially, has not returned to previous levels.
Government has encouraged people to get into the tourism sector, by reporting bloated figures to describe the size of the hospitality industry in Nova Scotia, he says. A retired teacher, he says when he first started in 1989, the tourist industry was a thriving business that was valued at about $800 million. Today that number has been inflated to $1.3 billion or even as high as $1.6 billion and Machnik isn't convinced the industry has reached such lofty heights.
But using those numbers as a guide, he says he's concerned that has resulted in an over-building of tourist accommodations in the province, sometimes with the help of government financing.
The tourism pie has been sliced so thin that it is difficult for the many operators to sustain their business. The innkeepers guild president, Grandy, says he's heard some operators complain that this has to be a good year for tourism in Nova Scotia or there's going to be "blood on the floor," as people are forced to give up their businesses.
After last year, tourist operators are justified in being cautious. How could they be otherwise? Just like farmers, tourist operators are required to put much of their money and a great deal of their effort upfront in the spring, in the hope that it will all pay off later by attracting a bumper crop of tourists.